Everything you need to know about UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

ACC UFC contributor Felix Heath-Collins with everything you need to know ahead of UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira.

This weekend's PPV (Pay-Per-View) UFC 281 is the Kiwi card we've all been waiting for. In total, four New Zealand-born or trained fighters will defend their positions in the UFC, ultimately leading to the main event where Kiwi-trained Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight title against the devastating kickboxer Alex Pereira. And I hate to say it, but if anyone can dethrone Izzy, it's Alex.

The Main Event:

Israel Adesanya carries the flags of two nations: Nigeria - where he was born, and New Zealand - where he was trained. With a background in elite kickboxing, Adesanya has been near-flawless in his pro MMA run thus far. Adesanya's only loss came when he attempted to claim the light-heavyweight belt from Jan Błachowicz on top of his middleweight belt, a fight he lost via unanimous decision. At middleweight, he's seemed unstoppable. Among his most impressive victories are former middleweight champions such as Anderson "The Spider" Silva, and Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker twice. Adesanya's supremely fluid and focused formulation of kickboxing, Muay Thai, and boxing blend into a potent combination that leaves opponents struggling to land any punches up until they are dropped and finished. In his whole combat sports career, Adesanya has only ever been knocked out once: in kickboxing, against Alex Pereira.

Alex Pereira is a Brazilian tank with the firepower to match. Nobody would expect a 6-1 newbie to be challenging the greatest middleweight champion ever. Unless, of course, they've already knocked out that great champion before. Not only is Pereira ready to challenge the champion, but many bettors are predicting a win for the Brazilian challenger. Why? Not only is Pereira a match for Adesanya's height (both at 6'4"), but he easily surpasses Adesanya in terms of knockout power. Adesanya's advantage lies in his vastly superior speed and timing, but one wrong move and Pereira could separate his soul from his body with a devastating lead left hook. Powerful left hooks have been the bane of evasive fighters throughout the history of combat sports. For example, during 1971's "Fight of the Century" between Muhammad Ali and "Smokin'" Joe Frazier, the power of Frazier's lead left hook was so great it nearly stopped Ali twice in the fight, before Frazier won a unanimous decision, and thereby set the scene for a trilogy of legendary bouts. In layman's terms, a dangerous lead left hook punishes evasive fighters because it significantly reduces lateral (sideways) escape options; whereas an evasive fighter can typically escape danger by circling laterally to the non-power side of their opponent, the power left hook makes the non-power side almost as dangerous as the power side. Theoretically, the evasive fighter is then forced into a corner and knocked out.

Who wins? My money's on the fleet-of-foot Adesanya who has much more MMA experience and could potentially grapple the inexperienced Pereira to the ground for a TKO or submission. But the MMA community is split on the outcome of this fight, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't extremely nervous.

Other Kiwi Fights:

Opening the main card is another Kiwi fan favourite fighter Dan "The Hangman" Hooker (21-12) who is rebounding off of two consecutive losses via finish (submission and TKO), with four of his last five fights ending in a loss. What those raw statistics fail to consider is the level of competition. Two of those five losses were against Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier and Islam Makhachev, both of whom have held (or currently hold) championships. Hooker has beaten the breaks off of B-tier fighters such as Jim "A-10" Miller, Gilbert "Durinho" Burns, James "The Texecutioner" Vick, and "Raging" Al Iaquinta. This weekend Hooker will face Claudio "Prince of Peru" Puelles (12-2) who is a rapidly rising contender and submission ace. Hooker's style generally favours a standing brawl or technical showcase, and the promotion hasn't done him any favours matching him up against a submission threat again. Then again: every round starts standing up, and you don't want to trade blows with a kickboxer of Hooker's calibre.

The top of the prelim card sees Christchurch native Brad "Quake" Riddell (10-3) face one of his greatest tests thus far in young veteran Brazilian Renato Moicano (16-5). In only two years with the UFC, Riddell has made quite the impact beating the likes of Jamie Mullarkey, Magomed Mustafaev, and Drew Dober. After a great start to his UFC career, Riddell is now carrying the burden of a two-fight losing streak, having been wheel kick TKO'd and then submitted via mounted guillotine choke. Now, at the most difficult point of his young career, Riddell must perhaps face his hardest fight thus far with his back against the wall. His opponent Renato Moicano has a history of championship-level fights, but without ever claiming the belt for himself. Riddell's best chance of victory is of course on the feet - whether that's at distance or in the clinch. But on the floor grappling with Moicano is a surefire way to wind up rear naked choked. I have great faith that Riddell's incredible fight IQ will keep him out of dangerous positions and lead him to a dominant victory.

Finally, kicking off the early prelims is the fresh-faced model and newly minted cage fighter Carlos "Black Jag" Ulberg (6-1). The Kiwi-born Ulberg has had a somewhat rocky start to his UFC career. Debuting on the Contender Series in late 2020 with a knockout of Bruno Oliveira, Ulberg was expected to do great things. However, in his actual UFC debut Ulberg beat Kennedy "African Savage" Nzechukwu up until the moment he was knocked out. Ulberg's defensive holes caused his sublime striking game to suffer. Now the light-heavyweight has bounced back with two consecutive victories against well-regarded prospects Fabio "Water Buffalo" Cherant via unanimous decision and Tafon "Da Don" Nchukwi with a KO/TKO via hooks. Now Ulberg faces another super dangerous prospect in Nicolae "Nicu" Negumereanu (13-1). It seems that Ulberg has all the striking tools and power necessary to finish any light-heavyweight, but his willingness to fight with his hands down and chin raised leaves a lot of concerns defensively. Undoubtedly Ulberg and City Kickboxing head coach Eugene Bareman have trained hard to fill these holes, but the real test will be against the powerful Romanian wrestler Negumereanu.

UFC 281 featuring all these fights and so many more goes down this Sunday at 4:00 PM for us here in New Zealand, with the early prelims starting at 12:00 PM. Of all the UFC cards to miss, this one ain't it. Enjoy!