Matt Heath: Has Winston quit the ciggies?

As we all know, Jacinda is the new boss and the nation has suddenly become excited about the election. She's saying "Let's do this" and people are listening.

For me however, Andrew Little standing down has been over shadowed by another political quitting. Winston Peters giving up the fags.

In an interview on The Matt and Jerry Breakfast show on Radio Hauraki (me being the Matt and Jeremy Wells the Jerry), Jacinda Ardern suggested that Winston may be off the poles.

The issue came up during an intense line of questioning around what she'll be taking to the New Zealand First leader post-election (if it comes to that). She reckoned she'd take a bottle of GlenDronach 21 Year Old - Parliament and two glasses.

Wells asked the obvious follow-up question "would you be prepared to go in with a pack of Dunny Blues as well".

That's when Jacinda dropped the bombshell: "I think he's off the ciggies". She did add "don't hold me to that, I'm speculating a bit here". But if it's true it's hard to fathom. I don't know about you but when I picture Winston, I think suit, smile, ciggies. In that order.

But back to Andrew Little. The writing was on the wall for two years. Everyone clearly loves Jacinda. So why did it take so long for him to quit?

The answer is simple. No one knows when to quit. There have only been three New Zealanders in our entire history who have known when to quit. Richie McCaw, John Key and Paul Henry.

The trick is to quit while you're ahead. Unfortunately you can't do that if you never get ahead. Little had to quit while he was behind, which must have sucked.

But he shouldn't feel bad. Even the most amazing people mess up the timing of their quitting. Take the greatest of all time Muhammad Ali. As Larry Holmes said in 2016 "Ali did not know when to stop taking punches and he never knew when to quit. Eventually your mind makes a date your body can't keep, and you have to learn to accept that."

History's greatest explorer Captain James Cook also didn't know when to quit. He nailed his first two voyages down this way. Mapping lands all over the Pacific in amazing detail.

Making geographic, nautical and scientific discoveries that would change the world forever. Sadly his 1779 three-peat was a complete humiliator. Especially the part where he got killed while attempting to kidnap a Hawaiian chief.

Like so many other successful people Ali and Cook gambled, rode their luck and lost. This is, of course, the fate of many an over-leveraged Kiwi property developer.

It's similar to the way Kiwis drink. We don't know when to stop. In New Zealand "Just one more" can be translated as "Eight more". "One for the road" as "I'll be sleeping here".

Other people's success stories can make quitting even harder. There are plenty who stick with it and do turn things around.

Let's go back to Winston Peters. He probably should have quit in 2008 when Simon Bridges smashed him by 11,742 votes in Tauranga. Even more humiliatingly his entire party was biffed out of Parliament.

But he didn't give up. Instead he declared, "This is not the end" and it wasn't. By 2011 New Zealand First was back, even bigger in 2014 and in 2015 he won Northland.

Now look at the man. He's on top of his game, smiling broadly and holding the balance of power (but potentially no ciggie).

We all agree that Andrew Little waited too long to quit. But he's done it now and the election is so much more exciting for it. So let's not be too hard on the man. When it comes to quitting he's in good company. Hardly anyone picks the right time to go. Two of the greatest ever Ali and Cook didn't.

As for Winston he might just be sharing a bottle GlenDronach 21 Year Old with Jacinda next month. Mr English should probably get his 'walk run' on.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission.