All you need to know: State of Origin 2024, game III predictions

State of Origin III - New South Wales v Queensland, Suncorp Stadium, Wednesday 10:05pm

State of Origin II result?

New South Wales have salvaged their State of Origin campaign, sending the series to a decider after demolishing Queensland in a 38-18 bloodbath.

Any changes to the lineups?

Both sides have injury concerns heading into this one, giving Michael Maguire and Billy Slater much to think about when selecting their teams.

Dane Gagai and Selwyn Cobbo come into the starting side for Queensland, with Valentine Holmes pushed from centre to wing and Jaydn Su’a has made way for Kurt Capewell. Kalyn Ponga has also been brought in to the bench for Queensland and could provide a boost for the Maroons with his electric running.

For the Blues, Bradman Best has been brought in to replace injured South Sydney star Latrell Mitchell. In the only other change to a winning side in game two, Maguire has opted to bring Warrior Mitch Barnett onto his interchange in the place of Haumole Olakau’atu.

Where is it?

Suncorp Stadium is referred to as the ‘14th man’ for Queensland and for good reason. The Maroons have won 65% of their State of Origin matches at Suncorp Stadium, including four of the last five. In deciders, they have won 11 of 13.

In the 2022 decider, Queensland turned around a 12-10 half-time deficit to win 22-12, with Ben Hunt scoring the winning try.

Are there any Warriors playing?

Kurt Capewell has been named to start for Queensland. He plays his second Origin game since 2022 and has been selected for his reliability and versatility. While a second-rower for the Warriors, he has played in the centres for the Maroons. Will be utilised on the edge as an outside back if the Maroons have an injury.

Mitch Barnett is in the 17 for the Blues and should make his Origin debut from the interchange bench.

Players to watch?

Mitch Moses - NSW

His Origin II masterclass was described as a coming-of-age performance. Now he has the chance to lock up the halfback jersey for the foreseeable future if he can become only the second NSW number seven to inspire victory in a game-three decider at Suncorp Stadium.

Liam Martin - NSW

An elite ball-runner, enthusiastic defender and serial pest, this guy is made for the Origin arena. Will be keen to take on former teammate Kurt Capewell in a match-up that could yield plenty of points for the Blues.

Stephen Chriton - NSW

Crichton is prized in the Blues camp for his energy and leadership, but he’s also one of the league’s best big-game players. He’s returning to the scene of the 2021 grand final, where he picked off an intercept to score the decisive try for Penrith. What magic will he produce this time?

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow - Queensland

The man known as “Hammer” has already scored four tries this series and with one more will equal Maroons great Lote Tuqiri’s five tries in a series in 2002. On track to be the greatest Origin try-scorer in history with his current strike rate.

Daly Cherry-Evans - Queensland

Cherry-Evans is yet to announce whether this will be his last Origin game, but his form suggests the Maroons skipper could easily play on in 2025 and become the oldest Origin player in history. A win on Wednesday night would be his fourth series victory as captain and elevate him to a place among Origin greats.

Patrick Carrigan - Queensland

The Broncos No.13 is one of the game’s leading forwards who has speed and a heap of skill. It is his physical presence that has been a highlight in Queensland’s best wins and will be again at Suncorp Stadium.

Who are the bookies backing?

The NZ TAB has Queensland as $1.87 favourites with New South Wales paying $1.95 to clinch the decider on enemy territory.

NSW 1-12 - $3.05

NSW 13+ - $4.50

Queensland 1-12 - $2.95

Queensland 13+- $3.90

How to watch?

As always, the Herald will have live coverage from the 10:05pm kick-off.

Elsewhere, Sky Open will broadcast Game III, live and free, as well as the same coverage on Sky Sport 4.

If you’re wanting something a bit different, our friends at the Alternative Commentary Collective will also have their coverage on Sky Sport 9, starting at 9:55pm.

State of Origin III predictions

Will Toogood: NSW 13+

Christopher Reive: Queensland 1-12

Chris Rattue: Queensland 1-12

Elijah Fa’afiu: NSW 1-12

Nathan Limm: Queensland 1-12

Alex Powell: Queensland 1-12

Luke Kirkness: NSW 1-12

Mark Kelly: Queensland 13+

State of Origin II lineups

NSW: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray

Interchange: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Mitchell Barnett 17. Spencer Leniu

Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Dane Gagai 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kalyn Ponga

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission