How Crusaders can sneak into Quarter-Finals

One round to go, five regular season games that could decide the eight Super Rugby Pacific playoff spots.

The Blues currently hold top spot but both the Chiefs and Brumbies have a chance to pounce in the final weekend of round-robin action. 11 of the 12 teams are still a chance to make the quarter-finals with the three-win Crusaders not out of it.

Here’s how the quarter-finals can play out along with the permutations.

1st Blues Vs 8th Fijian Drua
Last regular season games: Blues v Chiefs, Saturday 7pm; Fijian Drua v Rebels, Saturday 2.05pm.

The Blues already missed one chance to secure top spot following Saturday’s defeat to the Crusaders. They could still finish first even with a defeat to the Chiefs, but would need the Hurricanes and Brumbies to lose as well. The Blues could also finish as low as third. The Blues (+241) have a much better points difference than the Hurricanes (+172) and the Brumbies (+94), but the Hurricanes could still edge them with a bonus point win over the Highlanders, if the Blues beat the Chiefs but don’t record three or more tries.

The Drua sit five points back from the seventh-placed Rebels but have a better points difference, so could chase them down with a victory in Lautoka as long as the Rebels don’t get any bonus points. A defeat and the Drua could miss out on the playoffs - as they are just two points ahead of the Force and Crusaders.

Previous encounter: February 24 (week one) Blues 34 Fijian Drua 10.

2nd Hurricanes Vs 7th Rebels
Last regular season games: Hurricanes v Highlanders, Saturday 4.35pm; Rebels @ Fijian Drua, Saturday 2.05pm.

The Canes can finish as high as first or as low as third. They will move into top spot even with a bonus point defeat to the Highlanders as they play before the Blues-Chiefs clash on Saturday. A bonus point win though is what they will be seeking which will put them in a strong position. Either way they will have a home quarter-final next week.

The Rebels can reach sixth with a win over the Drua in Fijia along with a Highlanders defeat to the Hurricanes. But the Melbourne outfit could fall as low as eighth if they suffer a big defeat to the Drua. They have an away quarter-final secured against either the Blues, Hurricanes or Brumbies.

Previous encounter: March 22 (week five) Hurricanes 54 Rebels 28.

3rd Brumbies Vs 6th Highlanders
Last regular season games: Brumbies @ Force, Saturday 9.35pm; Highlanders @ Hurricanes, Saturday 4.35pm.

The Brumbies and Force play the final game of the regular season, so by kickoff it will be clear if the Brumbies can move out of third - and if the Force are done for the season. The Brumbies can finish top with a win and the Blues and Hurricanes both lose. They can’t fall back to fourth despite the Chiefs sitting just five points back due to having two more wins - the first factor in deciding a points tie-breaker.

The Highlanders can’t move up to fifth, but can drop to seventh with a defeat and a Rebels win in Fiji. The Highlanders haven’t beaten the Hurricanes since 2020, and are 1-9 in their last 10 encounters.

Previous encounter: March 16 (week four) Brumbies 27 Highlanders 21.

4th Chiefs Vs 5th Reds
Last regular season games: Chiefs @ Blues, Saturday 7.05pm; Reds @ Waratahs, Friday 9.35pm.

Lock this one in. The Chiefs will host the Reds in a quarter-final as both teams can’t move from their current spots on the table. The Chiefs can at least play spoilers to the Blues and deny them top spot. The Reds-Waratahs clash, despite being a Blues v Maroons entree ahead of Origin I is the only game this week with nothing riding on it in terms of playoff implications.

Previous encounter: March 9 (week three) - Reds 25 Chiefs 19

Still a chance
9th Force - Two points back from Fijian Drua. Finish season by hosting the Brumbies in the final game on Saturday but season will be over before kickoff if Drua defeat the Rebels.

10th Crusaders - Two points out from eighth, but crucially two defeats back from the Drua so will need both the Drua and Force to lose their final games.

Six points from eighth. Need wins over the Blues and Moana Pasifika and other results to go their way to finish in top eight.

11th Moana Pasifika - Finish the season at the Crusaders as they look to win back-to-back for the first time in franchise history. Can still finish eighth. Need a win over the Crusaders along with Force and Drua defeats.

Always next year
12th Waratahs - 11 points out from eighth, just two wins to their name this season.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission