How every team (except Southland can win the Ranfurly Shield

It is a truth universally acknowledged that nothing brings the best out of an NPC side like the Ranfurly Shield.

It has been at the heart of some of the most ferocious, memorable matches and held by some of the great teams that have defined the past 120 years of domestic rugby. Any rugby fan can remember Shield games like they happened yesterday and the names of players who either became local legends with a single kick or pariahs from a missed tackle.

The 2024 season has been no different. Hawkes Bay, the current Shield holders and top of the NPC table, have started their defence of the Log o’ Wood with wins over feisty and much improved Northland and Southland teams. With more known about who’s who this year and their form, the upcoming matches for Hawke’s Bay will be more challenging than what they’ve faced so far.

The threats to the Bay’s retention of the Shield for another summer start this Saturday at 7pm where they face a Tasman side that sits third on the table and look the goods on current form. Add challenges from a strong Taranaki team and a mercurial (at best) Auckland team to round out the season, the Shield could head out of town via State Highway 2 before the end of the year.

There is technically still a chance for all but one team to have a crack at the Shield this year.

Some require divine intervention to get a crack but we have summarised the ways it could come together for each NPC team below. Unfortunately for the Southland Stags, Jason Rutledge won’t be getting the special call-up to bolster their chances as they either needed to win it or the Taniwha took it in the aforementioned games.

Hawke’s Bay
To lock the Shield away for the summer they have to fend off Tasman in round five on a short turnaround, similarly another quick shot for Taranaki in round seven and then Auckland in round eight. To hark back to last year’s dance between the Lions and the Magpies, if Tasman win then lose to Wellington it will be game on between the Magpies and Lions in the final round.

Tasman
Major chance to win the Shield even though the Tasman haven’t held the Shield since 1973 (under their previous namesake Marlborough). If they win this Saturday they’ll immediately face Wellington the following round, Auckland midweek in round six and then Taranaki in the final week.

Taranaki
Taranaki get their chance to win back the Shield which they last held in a New Plymouth minute in 2020. If they beat Hawke’s Bay they’ll hope to avoid the same fate with a quick turnaround against a plucky North Harbour in round seven, then hope to put it away for the summer when they face Manawatū in round 8.

Auckland
Auckland and Shield rugby are synonymous for the older generation of fans but fans of Auckland young and old this year will be lacking a bit of confidence in their performance leading to a Shield scalp from Hawke’s Bay in round eight. Failing that they’ll face Tasman if they’re able to take it off Hawke’s Bay in round 8. A victory in either means only a single defence against Bay of Plenty in round 9.

Wellington
The Lions are a top-of-the-table team that will be looking to add the Shield to their trophy cabinet. They need a Tasman win this week to then challenge in round 6. They’ll face off against Hawke’s Bay in round 9 which will double as a preview of the playoffs.

North Harbour
The high-scoring attack of North Harbour led by the stand-out Cade Banks needs Hawke’s Bay to lose the Shield to Taranaki, and then to catch Taranaki by surprise in a short turnaround. They’ll have a single defence against Canterbury before locking the Shield in Albany.

Manawatū
Having not lifted the Shield since a 1976-78 defence, the Turbos will need a Hawke’s Bay loss to Taranaki and a Bulls defence against North Harbour if they want to hold the Shield aloft this season. A defence against Counties Manukau comes in the final round of the competition.

Bay of Plenty
The Steamers need some luck if they want to win the Shield for only the second time. Tasman need to beat Hawke’s Bay this weekend, Wellington defeat Tasman in round 6 and then the Bay get their shot. If Hawke’s Bay retain, they will need an Auckland win in round 8 before a round 9 challenge to end the season. If they beat Wellington, they’ll defend against Northland in round 8.

Canterbury
Canterbury will need a lot of luck to notch another win to take the Shield south this year. Hawke’s Bay lose to Taranaki, Taranaki lose to North Harbour for a chance in round 8. They’ll have a final round defence against Waikato.

Northland
Having already missed their chance to control their own Shield destiny by losing to Hawke’s Bay earlier this season, the Taniwha need Hawke’s Bay to lose the Shield to Tasman, Tasman to lose to Wellington, Wellington to lose to Bay of Plenty before they get a shot in round 8. They’ll have a round 9 defence against Otago if they do win.

Counties Manukau
Another one-time Shield holder, Counties require a Taranaki win over the Magpies, a Manawatū win over Taranaki to earn the right to challenge Lord Ranfurly’s prize in the final round of the competition.

Otago
Otago are quietly the most improved team in the competition led by a dominant forward pack with Liam Coltman at the helm. They require a fair bit of luck for their shot. Tasman, Wellington, Bay of Plenty and Northland all need to win their respective challenges before another potential final round shot.

Waikato
Get out the cowbells Waikato, because you’ll need them to get your chance to hold the Shield aloft at a parade in Hamilton. Hawke’s Bay lose to Taranaki, Taranaki lose to North Harbour, North Harbour lose to Canterbury and then Waikato get the chance to get some revenge on the Cantabrians for the 2000′s loss that saw their mighty 21-game defence come to an end (if you can remember that).

A lot of permutations and a lot of luck, but all roads will go through the Hawke’s Bay starting this weekend against the Mako.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission