The best bets and dangers revealed for the Karaka Millions

Race 1, Cambridge Stud Almanzor Trophy 1200m

Poetic Champion brings best last start rating to this race of 93, when beating the older sprinters here FUP (91 days). Rated up to 94.7 last prep when defeating Savaglee so has scope to rate higher and if he does, it will make it very hard for his opposition here.

Kitty Flash is the only other horse I could reasonably forecast to hit a comparable mark and present a danger, but unfortunately the filly has drawn barrier 14 and is likely to give a big start to Poetic Champion.

Hankee Alpha is the X Factor. We still haven’t established her ceiling yet so further new peaks are not out of the question.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are Kitty Flash (6), Hankee Alpha (7) and Move To Strike (1).

Suggested bet: Poetic Champion to win at the $2.80.

Race 2, Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic 1600m

Race revolves around Orchestral. Subjective as to what price you mark her. On ratings, you can mark the mare very short, but the run of outs as a 4-year-old must count for something. At her best she’s a consistent 98 to 101 type, which wins this race. Her past four runs she’s ranged between 87 to 93. No doubt she can win but there’s no betting appeal.

Bourbon Empress showed an impressive turn of foot to win here on NYD. With a similar set-up tomorrow, I can see her replicating the 93.8 rating and being very hard to beat.

Mary Shan has “Provence vibes” about her. Both mares were luckless out of the Group 2 Rich Hill Mile, then draw barrier 1 at their next start. If Mary Shan gets a similar ride/run to that of Provence in the Thorndon Mile, she can win.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are Mary Shan (12), Orchestral (10) and Mosinvader (8).

Suggested bet: Bourbon Empress to win at the $4.

Race 3, Westbury Classic 1400m

Belclare returns to NZ (Lisa Latta) as the defending champion and has the overseas ratings to win this race comfortably. Twice a Group 3 winner from her past three starts, rating 100+ but last start she ran well below market expectations. Hard to assess with confidence until the market reveals more in trading, but off recent ratings deserves to be shorter.

Acquarello had the perfect set-up last start to win here, but she’s in career-best form and gets a positive map again to run very well.

The inclusion of the Chris Waller-trained Konasana and the return of Belclare does make this a poor clarity race.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are Acquarello (5), Konasana (4) and Skew Wiff (2).

Suggested bets: Belclare to win at the $3.70 and then Acquarello 1 x 2 play at $10 and $3.

Race 4, TAB Karaka Millions 2YO 1200m

Too Sweet needs a good steer from that barrier but brings clearly the best rating profile and has won on the course which is vital for a juvenile. The market is offering a fair price to accept the challenge of the map.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are To Bravery Born (3), Sierra Leone (12) and La Dorada (10).

Suggested bet: Too Sweet to win at the $4.60.

Race 5, TAB Karaka Millions 3YO 1600m

Lack of speed on paper, although Dealt With and Yaldi may inject some early tempo to cross from their gates, but unlikely they break any records after that. Either way, Tuxedo is going to end up in a lovely spot for Joe Doyle. He brings the second-best rating to the race, with a favourable map and proven ability to run out the trip. It’s a likeable profile in this race.

Damask Rose was a touch flat last start at 1400m. The trip should suit but the draw means she gives away a start again, so the pattern is relevant.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are Bourbon Proof (6), Yaldi (1) and Dealt With (6).

Suggested bet: Tuxedo win at the $7.50.

Race 6, Sistema Railway 1200m

Alabama Lass appeals on many levels here. She’s already reached the required level, which others here have not. The clock matched the visual earlier this season when tried over the 1100/1200m trips, rating 98.5 and 99.2. Her ratings then regressed when tried over 1400/1600m, highlighting she’s an out-and-out sprinter. I expect her to jump well, lead and be very hard to run down with only 52kg on her back.

Crocetti is the enigma in the field. He made a brilliant return as a 4-year-old, winning an Open Sprint with a 99 rating. However, despite the promise that effort showed, it’s proved to be his peak and he has since regressed. In his past two outings, he has been tardy away and with four to five runners likely go forward, my little query is whether he will get buried in the ruck off that inside draw, which carries a betting risk.

On form and recent runs, the dangers are Sacred Satono (5), Babylon Berlin (9) and Captured By Love (11).

Suggested bets: Alabama Lass win at the $3.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission